Consult the "Risk Overview" to know everything about country risk assessments, country analysis and forecasts prepared by the Country risk and economic research Coface Department.
The Coface country risk assessment aims at evaluating the average credit risk of companies in a given country. The risk assessment is based on economic, financial and political data. But it also takes into account Coface experience on the country, under two dimensions: Coface’s payment experience on the companies of the country and also its assessment of the Business climate.
| | COUNTRY RISK OVERVIEW- April 2012
Growth forecasts
And if Greece were to quit the eurozone? :
Greece quitting the eurozone would be disastrous. But this long unthinkable scenario cannot be discounted. Even though its likelihood remains below 50%, policymakers cannot afford to sweep it under the rug considering the severity of the Greek financial and economic crisis and the difficulty of implementing unavoidable reforms. This article draws lessons from the financial crises in Russia (1998) and Argentina (2001/2002) in exploring the likely advantages and disadvantages for Greece of withdrawing from the eurozone. What then would be the risk of propagation to the peripheral countries and the consequences for the eurozone as a whole?
Towards a new oil shock?
We foresee a $120 price per barrel of Brent in 2012. This reflects the severe constraints limiting the oil supply since the year began, the strong demand from emerging countries, and the heightened geopolitical uncertainties. In this article we consider several scenarios and analyse the effect on the world economy if prices surged beyond $120 per barrel. The global recession is likely to be triggered if prices soared above $200 a barrel but what would be the consequences if Brent prices surged to an intermediate $150 a barrel? And then, how would American, Japanese, European and emerging companies be affected?.
Country risk assessments :
Modifications, countries under watch list and assessments of major economies
 Consult the latest issue
|
|
|
