All Coface Publications
Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).
The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalisation of the exchange rate regime in January 2018.Read More
The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.Read More
13 major sectors assessed worldwide. Every quarter, Coface reviews the assessments of 13 sectors throughout 24 countries in 6 major regions in the world (representing approximately 85% of global GDP).Read More
Infographics - French organic food sector: how can it increase scale without abandoning its original principles?Read More
The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard (...)Read More
Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sectorRead More
Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with 19 % depreciation against the USD in 2016 (...)Read More
Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in eight selected economies(1) in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. Our corporate payment survey for 2016 showed that non-payment risks escalated on the back of financial stress and a looser approach to credit controls (...)Read More
Through the initiative of Coface, a world leader in trade credit management and risk information services, a credit opinion survey across the UAE was rolled out in order to map out major shifts and prevailing trends in company payments.Read More
Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average
RMB depreciation, capital flow measures and new monetary stance - What are the implications for Chinese corporates?Read More
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.Read More
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.Read More
South Africa’s growth performance has been in decline since the global financial crisis. Since peaking in 2011, the growth rate (hit by lower commodity prices and power supply problems) has continued to slow.Read More
Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)Read More
For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe (downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).Read More
Despite the silent impact of the first arrow on Japan’s exports, the operating profits of Japanese manufacturers which have been mainly exported oriented surged, in part due to their pricing-to-market behaviour.Read More
Poland has seen a slowing of its economy this year, compared to 2015. Nevertheless, growth is still continuing at a fair rate and, in fact, remains at a level which many other economies can only dream of.Read More
French growth has taken a time-out in Q2. The political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, the strikes in May and the floods affecting Ile-deFrance are all likely suspects responsible for this surprise halt. However, the figures are expected to recover in Q3.Read More
The importance of the Agrobusiness sector varies between the different North African economies. While on a regional level, the sector leads exports, on a country basis it differs. In Morroco, agribusiness benefits from government subsidies, as it contributes nearly 16% of GDP and provides employment for 40% of the population. Overall, across the main north African countries, the lowest level of risk is in Morocco...Read More
In the light of the on-going structural reforms, the "tale of two Chinas" is resulting in sector wise winners and losers, linked to their growth potential in the medium and longer term, government policies and structural demand.
Sluggish global growth, characterised in particular by China's loss of momentum, shock to commodity prices… Sub-Saharan Africa has not been spared in the global tempest and seeks to maintain growth against wind and tide. The commodity producers are the most affected.Read More
Bankruptcies drastically decreased in almost all countries in the region during the course of last year - especially in the four Northern Europe Region (NER) countries we focus on in this panorama, namely Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.Read More
Whatever their size, nationality or sector, we inform our customers about current market issues to assist them in controlling their financial risks. To do so, we provide our international business expertise, country and sector risk assessments, accurate data on 80 million companies worldwide and a range of scalable, innovative products that suit their needs and business strategy.Read More
The current recession and the Carwash1 corruption scandal have impacted the first of these variables, while the second has reacted to rising unemployment, negative growth in real wages and deteriorating credit conditions. The government has also failed to contain the dangerous course of its expenses and a second year of primary fiscal deficit was reported in 2015– a clear sign of lack of fiscal discipline.Read More
Sluggish growth, absence of inflationary pressures, ever more expansionary monetary policies and increased volatility in financial markets; these are four elements characterising the global economy in early 2016 (...)Read More
Since 2003, Coface has been conducting annual surveys on business payment experience in China. In 2015, the average credit termes offered by China-based firms decreased again, reflecting a more prudent approach to granting credit facilities to customers. the overall payment experience in China deteriorated and remained very challenging in 2015.Read More
The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)Read More
Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.Read More
Tenuous but confirmed. These are the terms that best describe France’s current growth - as illustrated by the figures for the third quarter, published in early November. Household consumption has (...)Read More
The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generally speaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched.Read More
What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.Read More
In this first overview of company insolvencies in Europe, Coface examines the following question: Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures?Read More
Coface’s seventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe ranks the businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses data such as number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets. In 2014, the CEE Top 500 companies generated a turnover of EUR 572 billion, which exceeds even half of the aggregated 2014 nominal GDP of those economies. The biggest companies were able to increase their turnover as well as workforce.
- 2014: A year of improvement throughout the region – turnover increased by +2.1%
- Higher turnover of the biggest companies reflected better economic prospects in 2014
- 12 countries under study: Bulgaria, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Hungary
- Poland was the biggest player, Hungary had the highest growth rate and the Czech Republic recovered
- Ukraine was excluded from the ranking, due to the ongoing conflict and resulting difficulties in obtaining reliable company data
- Automotive industry (+10.6%) top, oil & gas sector flop (-3.9%)
The automotive sector plays an important role in the CEE’s economic activity. Thanks to low labour costs, the educated workforce, geographical proximity to Western European markets, tax incentives and the stabilising legal environment, CEE countries have become attractive destinations for investment by global car manufacturers.Read More
In May 2014, following 5 weeks of legislative elections, India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader – Narendra Modi – became Prime Minister. Elected without the need for allies, this is the country’s first non coalition government for 25 years. Known to be pro-business, Mr Modi’s election has instilled hopes for reforms in a country where bureaucratic impediments and poor infrastructure have been constraining private and public investments for years.Read More
After a decade of well-implemented reforms and high growth rates, the Turkish economy seems to be struggling to maintain the same growth performance. Coface expects a growth rate of 3.5% this year - still a solid rate, yet below the potential growth rate estimated at 5% and lower than some of the country’s peers.Read More
"Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner."Read More
Since the introduction of milk quotas in 1984, until their effective ending in 2015, milk production has undergone many reforms. Having regulated the market for over 30 years, milk quotas disappeared on 1st April 2015. The world of dairy is in turmoil, with some seeing the end of quotas as an opportunity to produce more, while others are anxious and concerned that potential European overproduction will lead to sharp price falls. And all this is taking place in a context of stiff competition.Read More
Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2014, the survey was conducted in 8 economies – Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, as well as, for the first time, Thailand.Read More
The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone.Read More
The automotive industry in the United States, the"backbone of American industry" according to Barack Obama, was on the verge of bankruptcy at the time of the financial crisis, with a drop in sales of 35% between 2007 and 2009.Read More
In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now!Read More
The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with 2.5% growth in 2015, according to Coface forecast.Read More
Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respondents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014.Read More
Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only.Read More
The democratization of the Internet access in the 1990s has led to the creation of many companies. In this context, we question ourselves about their health: is their dynamic more favorable comparing to French companies as a whole? Is the French environment more favorable compared to other countries?Read More
The construction sector in Poland has undergone turbulent times. After the booming period related to increased demand for housing construction as well as massive public investments thanks to organizing the Euro 2012 football championship, the sector experienced a significant deterioration...Read More
How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the socalled “Arab Spring” late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries? The panorama will focus on hydrocarbon sector for the GCC countries and on the textile sector for the North Africa region. It will also assess the latest trends in construction, tourism and automotive sectors across the MENA region to evaluate possible corporate risks.Read More
Company insolvencies in Turkey: Rise in exchange rates and slowdown in domestic demand affected payment performance. Impaired profitability made payments difficult. Focus on some sector risks : Metal, Automotive, Food, Chemical, Construction, Retail, Textile & apparel.Read More
The term "deflation" seems to be on everyone's lips in Europe these days, not just on those of economists. The buzz around the term is not surprising, as Eurozone inflation has been falling for the past three years. France is no exception: (...)Read More
Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on rise since 2008 and 883 bankruptcies in 2013 is even the highest result in 9 years history.Read More
This publication is the October 2014 Coface Panorama country risk, and includes a study about World trade, which is stagnating in the first halfyear 2014 and is struggling to recover nearly 6 years after the start of crisis...Read More
Panorama United Arab Emirates : A remarkable recovery after the debt crisis but financing needs still highRead More
Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese government has continued its effort to carry out various items on the reform agenda, particularly on fine-tuning the structure of the Chinese economy. As domestic demand remains subdued, property market continues to be sluggish and over-capacity in some sectors remains unsolved, it would be unlikely China will achieve the 7.5% growth target. Coface expects the GDP growth of China could reach 7.4% in 2014, given more policy support in sight.Read More
At a time when it appears vital to capture the growth potential in Asia, European airlines are stumbling due to aggressive competition from low cost operators and airlines from the Gulf. Currently, they are among the least profitable in the world. Faced with these new constraints, what changes are conceivable?
Western Europe: the metal and automotive industries have left the "very high risks" category.
North America: majority of sectors at "medium risk".
Emerging Asia: paper-wood and construction sectors downgraded by a notch.
From 2004 to 2008 Brazil had grown, on average, by 4,8% a year, but in the former period, from 2009 to 2013, the average rate declined to 2,7%. The country did not take advantage of the good winds to make important reforms, such as improving the infrastructure and the business climate...Read More
New barometer of companies insolvencies in France : a lull is observed from January to April 2014, the number of insolvencies falling by 2.3%. This barometer is followed by a comparison between the situation
of SMEs in France and Spain.
According to the survey of credit risks management in Asia Pacific by Coface, corporate payment experience in the region generally stabilised. Companies in Australia and China suffered more non-payment. The growth slowdown in China remains a concern for other economies in the region in 2014.Read More
Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee (CPCCC) in November, a broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. These are clear signals that the Chinese effort to restructure the economy is more than just rhetoric.Read More
Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?
Household consumption in North America supports the distribution and automotive sectors, for which risk levels are improving. Emerging Asia, where the services sector has a lower risk profile, is not lagging behind. The situation of these sectors in Western Europe, though difficult, is stabilising.Read More
In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee (CPCCC) was held between November 9 and 12 in Beijing. The plenary session outlined the major economic directions of China in coming years which will have direct impacts on various industries and the vast business community.Read More
This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. How big is the rise in household consumption in this region? Have Asian households taken on too much debt? What are the specific consumer behaviour patterns in Asia? Which sectors are benefitting most from this expansion of consumption?Read More
This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator. In Europe, sector risks continue to deteriorate, especially in chemicals due to the remaining difficulties in the European industry, and also in the pharmaceutical branch due to the fiscal tightening measures taken by the governments.
Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?Read More
This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.Read More
Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors. The originality of the analysis is that it is based on aggregating the accounts of 6,000 companies in three of the world’s major regions: the European Union, North America and Emerging Asia.Read More
In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.Read More
The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries.Read More