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03/26/2015
Economic Publications

Panorama Global Country Risk Outlook

Panorama Global Country Risk Outlook
Advanced countries: stagnation is not destiny for all of them!

In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that five of them (Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, South Korea and Switzerland) currently have sufficient strengths to succeed over the nextdecade, when measured according to the five indicators we selected (demographics, innovation, debt, income, inequality and international trade).
With this issue we are also publishing our quarterly barometer of worldwide trends in country risk. With regard to the development of the risks since the end of 2014, weexplain why we have upgraded our risk assessments for Belgium, Cambodia and the Netherlands and give a positive view on Tunisia's outlook. We also explain why we give a negative assessment for the prospects for Brazil and Ecuador and why we have downgraded our assessment for Sierra Leone. We have also revised our assessments of the business environment in Kuwait, Uganda, Russia and Togo.
Readers will find updated reports for some of these countries setting out their economic situation in more detail, at the end of the panorama. Readers will also find updated country analyses for Cyprus, Greece, India, Russia and Nigeria.

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