China is trying to find a way to achieve healthier, more sustainable growth, but this is not completely painless for its economy – or for those of its neighbours. According to Coface estimates, growth is unlikely to exceed 6.7% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016, compared with 13.4% over the period 2006-2007. This is mainly a result of the technological and capital catch-up process running out of steam: several industries are suffering from overcapacity and corporate indebtedness is high, thus impacting investment.
As oil continues to be a major contributor to economic performance in the GCC, economic diversification is vital for the Gulf countries to ensure continued healthy growth. This has been showcased in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are driving sustained GDP growth through significant government investment in non-oil sectors. In the UAE, the food and beverage sector is forecasted to grow by 36% between 2014 and 2019, while KSA’s automotive industry is slated to rise by 5.2% in 2015.
Growth in Latin America has been slowing down since 2011. This lacklustre situation, caused by weak domestic fundamentals, has been exacerbated by cyclical factors experienced since the second half of 2014. In 2015 we have ob-served a further deterioration of this (...)