The Turkish economy - what to expect in 2014


Prior to the forthcoming presidential elections in August 2014, Coface is cautious in its assessment of corporate risks in Turkey. If political tensions rise again, as happened in December and January, investors may flee the country which could result in a fluctuation in Forex markets. Such a situation would negatively impact the corporate sector’s external debt stock, already at a record high.

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Coface forecasts a 13% drop in SME insolvencies in Spain and stabilisation in France in 2014


With comparable profiles in terms of entrepreneurial activity, Spain and France are following a worrying trend in terms of company insolvencies. However, SMEs in the two countries have evolved differently since the 2008-2009 crisis, and insolvency forecasts for 2014 further underline this divergence.

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Coface notes an improvement in risks in Western Europe and in "new" emerging economies


The first quarter of 2014 confirmed the acceleration in global growth: according to Coface's forecasts, after 2.6% in 2013, growth will be close to 3% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. The eurozone (1.1% expected in 2014) is slowly but surely recovering from a serious double-dip. The US is showing dynamic and balanced growth (2.7% forecast in 2014), in spite of bad weather in January. A rebalancing of growth is therefore underway: advanced economies will contribute around a third of this (compared to only a quarter in 2013) and emerging countries two thirds.
It is in the context of this confirmed recovery that Coface has upgraded its assessments of several European and emerging economies.

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